Modeling of future COVID-19 cases, hospitalizations, and deaths, by vaccination rates, nonpharmaceutical interventions adherence, and new variants scenarios

The COVID-19 Scenario Modeling Hub convened several modeling teams to provide long-term, 6-month projections in the US. The Hub has produced so far 9 rounds of projections based on scenarios aimed at enveloping the future drivers of the COVID-19 trajectory in the US (Vaccine delivery/administration, SARS-CoV-2 variants prevalence, relaxation of non-pharmaceuticals interventions (NPIs), etc.). The Hub aims at providing results based on ensembling the results of the different modeling teams.

Here we report the specific results of our specific modeling approach. The projections in this study are intended to bound plausible outbreak trajectories and should not be considered as forecasts of the most likely outcome. Considerable uncertainty is inherent when modeling the trajectory of COVID-19 over long timeframes because of deviations that may or may not be captured by the different scenarios (e.g., vaccine hesitancy, change in the pace of NPIs relaxation, etc.). The results for Round 4 appear in the MMWR report according to scenarios and data defined in late March 2021.

Update 7/29/21: Scenarios 4 through 6 do not include explicitly the modeling of the Delta variant, according to the scenario hub definitions, and we have discontinued their update.

Scenario Definitions
Extended Scenario Definitions*
Round 7.1
(Updated calibration timeline)
Round 6.1
(Complete Fall school reopening with updated school calendars)

*Note: extended scenarios provide updates and extensions to existing scenario hub scenarios (e.g. extended calibration timelines, updated NPIs calibrations, etc..). Differences are listed within the scenario definition of each extension.

United states Scenario PROJECTIONS

scenario a
No new variant emerges
Vaccination for ages 5-11 begins Nov 1

Scenario B
No new variant emerges
No vaccination for ages 5-11 yrs

Scenario C
More transmissible variant emerges
Vaccination for ages 5-11 begins Nov 1

Scenario D
More transmissible variant emerges
No vaccination for ages 5-11 yrs

SCENARIO projections by state

Select a state:

ALABAMA

scenario a
No new variant emerges
Vaccination for ages 5-11 begins Nov 1

Scenario B
No new variant emerges
No vaccination for ages 5-11 yrs

Scenario C
More transmissible variant emerges
Vaccination for ages 5-11 begins Nov 1

Scenario D
More transmissible variant emerges
No vaccination for ages 5-11 yrs

Alaska

scenario a
No new variant emerges
Vaccination for ages 5-11 begins Nov 1

Scenario B
No new variant emerges
No vaccination for ages 5-11 yrs

Scenario C
More transmissible variant emerges
Vaccination for ages 5-11 begins Nov 1

Scenario D
More transmissible variant emerges
No vaccination for ages 5-11 yrs

wisconsin

scenario a
No new variant emerges
Vaccination for ages 5-11 begins Nov 1

Scenario B
No new variant emerges
No vaccination for ages 5-11 yrs

Scenario C
More transmissible variant emerges
Vaccination for ages 5-11 begins Nov 1

Scenario D
More transmissible variant emerges
No vaccination for ages 5-11 yrs

wyoming

scenario a
No new variant emerges
Vaccination for ages 5-11 begins Nov 1

Scenario B
No new variant emerges
No vaccination for ages 5-11 yrs

Scenario C
More transmissible variant emerges
Vaccination for ages 5-11 begins Nov 1

Scenario D
More transmissible variant emerges
No vaccination for ages 5-11 yrs

ARIZONA

scenario a
No waning
High protection against infection

Scenario B
Fast waning of immunity
High protection against infection

Scenario C
Slow waning of immunity
Low protection against infection

Scenario D
Fast waning of immunity
Low protection against infection

arkansas

scenario a
No waning
High protection against infection

Scenario B
Fast waning of immunity
High protection against infection

Scenario C
Slow waning of immunity
Low protection against infection

Scenario D
Fast waning of immunity
Low protection against infection

california

scenario a
No new variant emerges
Vaccination for ages 5-11 begins Nov 1

Scenario B
No new variant emerges
No vaccination for ages 5-11 yrs

Scenario C
More transmissible variant emerges
Vaccination for ages 5-11 begins Nov 1

Scenario D
More transmissible variant emerges
No vaccination for ages 5-11 yrs

colorado

scenario a
No new variant emerges
Vaccination for ages 5-11 begins Nov 1

Scenario B
No new variant emerges
No vaccination for ages 5-11 yrs

Scenario C
More transmissible variant emerges
Vaccination for ages 5-11 begins Nov 1

Scenario D
More transmissible variant emerges
No vaccination for ages 5-11 yrs

connecticut

scenario a
No new variant emerges
Vaccination for ages 5-11 begins Nov 1

Scenario B
No new variant emerges
No vaccination for ages 5-11 yrs

Scenario C
More transmissible variant emerges
Vaccination for ages 5-11 begins Nov 1

Scenario D
More transmissible variant emerges
No vaccination for ages 5-11 yrs

delaware

scenario a
No new variant emerges
Vaccination for ages 5-11 begins Nov 1

Scenario B
No new variant emerges
No vaccination for ages 5-11 yrs

Scenario C
More transmissible variant emerges
Vaccination for ages 5-11 begins Nov 1

Scenario D
More transmissible variant emerges
No vaccination for ages 5-11 yrs

district of columbia

scenario a
No new variant emerges
Vaccination for ages 5-11 begins Nov 1

Scenario B
No new variant emerges
No vaccination for ages 5-11 yrs

Scenario C
More transmissible variant emerges
Vaccination for ages 5-11 begins Nov 1

Scenario D
More transmissible variant emerges
No vaccination for ages 5-11 yrs

florida

scenario a
No new variant emerges
Vaccination for ages 5-11 begins Nov 1

Scenario B
No new variant emerges
No vaccination for ages 5-11 yrs

Scenario C
More transmissible variant emerges
Vaccination for ages 5-11 begins Nov 1

Scenario D
More transmissible variant emerges
No vaccination for ages 5-11 yrs

georgia

scenario a
No new variant emerges
Vaccination for ages 5-11 begins Nov 1

Scenario B
No new variant emerges
No vaccination for ages 5-11 yrs

Scenario C
More transmissible variant emerges
Vaccination for ages 5-11 begins Nov 1

Scenario D
More transmissible variant emerges
No vaccination for ages 5-11 yrs

hawaii

scenario a
No new variant emerges
Vaccination for ages 5-11 begins Nov 1

Scenario B
No new variant emerges
No vaccination for ages 5-11 yrs

Scenario C
More transmissible variant emerges
Vaccination for ages 5-11 begins Nov 1

Scenario D
More transmissible variant emerges
No vaccination for ages 5-11 yrs

idaho

scenario a
No new variant emerges
Vaccination for ages 5-11 begins Nov 1

Scenario B
No new variant emerges
No vaccination for ages 5-11 yrs

Scenario C
More transmissible variant emerges
Vaccination for ages 5-11 begins Nov 1

Scenario D
More transmissible variant emerges
No vaccination for ages 5-11 yrs

illinois

scenario a
No new variant emerges
Vaccination for ages 5-11 begins Nov 1

Scenario B
No new variant emerges
No vaccination for ages 5-11 yrs

Scenario C
More transmissible variant emerges
Vaccination for ages 5-11 begins Nov 1

Scenario D
More transmissible variant emerges
No vaccination for ages 5-11 yrs

indiana

scenario a
No new variant emerges
Vaccination for ages 5-11 begins Nov 1

Scenario B
No new variant emerges
No vaccination for ages 5-11 yrs

Scenario C
More transmissible variant emerges
Vaccination for ages 5-11 begins Nov 1

Scenario D
More transmissible variant emerges
No vaccination for ages 5-11 yrs

iowa

scenario a
No new variant emerges
Vaccination for ages 5-11 begins Nov 1

Scenario B
No new variant emerges
No vaccination for ages 5-11 yrs

Scenario C
More transmissible variant emerges
Vaccination for ages 5-11 begins Nov 1

Scenario D
More transmissible variant emerges
No vaccination for ages 5-11 yrs

kansas

scenario a
No new variant emerges
Vaccination for ages 5-11 begins Nov 1

Scenario B
No new variant emerges
No vaccination for ages 5-11 yrs

Scenario C
More transmissible variant emerges
Vaccination for ages 5-11 begins Nov 1

Scenario D
More transmissible variant emerges
No vaccination for ages 5-11 yrs

kentucky

scenario a
No new variant emerges
Vaccination for ages 5-11 begins Nov 1

Scenario B
No new variant emerges
No vaccination for ages 5-11 yrs

Scenario C
More transmissible variant emerges
Vaccination for ages 5-11 begins Nov 1

Scenario D
More transmissible variant emerges
No vaccination for ages 5-11 yrs

louisiana

scenario a
No new variant emerges
Vaccination for ages 5-11 begins Nov 1

Scenario B
No new variant emerges
No vaccination for ages 5-11 yrs

Scenario C
More transmissible variant emerges
Vaccination for ages 5-11 begins Nov 1

Scenario D
More transmissible variant emerges
No vaccination for ages 5-11 yrs

maine

scenario a
No new variant emerges
Vaccination for ages 5-11 begins Nov 1

Scenario B
No new variant emerges
No vaccination for ages 5-11 yrs

Scenario C
More transmissible variant emerges
Vaccination for ages 5-11 begins Nov 1

Scenario D
More transmissible variant emerges
No vaccination for ages 5-11 yrs

maryland

scenario a
No new variant emerges
Vaccination for ages 5-11 begins Nov 1

Scenario B
No new variant emerges
No vaccination for ages 5-11 yrs

Scenario C
More transmissible variant emerges
Vaccination for ages 5-11 begins Nov 1

Scenario D
More transmissible variant emerges
No vaccination for ages 5-11 yrs

massachusetts

scenario a
No new variant emerges
Vaccination for ages 5-11 begins Nov 1

Scenario B
No new variant emerges
No vaccination for ages 5-11 yrs

Scenario C
More transmissible variant emerges
Vaccination for ages 5-11 begins Nov 1

Scenario D
More transmissible variant emerges
No vaccination for ages 5-11 yrs

Figures show the median, the IQR and the 90%RR

michigan

scenario a
No new variant emerges
Vaccination for ages 5-11 begins Nov 1

Scenario B
No new variant emerges
No vaccination for ages 5-11 yrs

Scenario C
More transmissible variant emerges
Vaccination for ages 5-11 begins Nov 1

Scenario D
More transmissible variant emerges
No vaccination for ages 5-11 yrs

minnesota

scenario a
No new variant emerges
Vaccination for ages 5-11 begins Nov 1

Scenario B
No new variant emerges
No vaccination for ages 5-11 yrs

Scenario C
More transmissible variant emerges
Vaccination for ages 5-11 begins Nov 1

Scenario D
More transmissible variant emerges
No vaccination for ages 5-11 yrs

mississippi

scenario a
No new variant emerges
Vaccination for ages 5-11 begins Nov 1

Scenario B
No new variant emerges
No vaccination for ages 5-11 yrs

Scenario C
More transmissible variant emerges
Vaccination for ages 5-11 begins Nov 1

Scenario D
More transmissible variant emerges
No vaccination for ages 5-11 yrs

missouri

scenario a
No new variant emerges
Vaccination for ages 5-11 begins Nov 1

Scenario B
No new variant emerges
No vaccination for ages 5-11 yrs

Scenario C
More transmissible variant emerges
Vaccination for ages 5-11 begins Nov 1

Scenario D
More transmissible variant emerges
No vaccination for ages 5-11 yrs

montana

scenario a
No new variant emerges
Vaccination for ages 5-11 begins Nov 1

Scenario B
No new variant emerges
No vaccination for ages 5-11 yrs

Scenario C
More transmissible variant emerges
Vaccination for ages 5-11 begins Nov 1

Scenario D
More transmissible variant emerges
No vaccination for ages 5-11 yrs

nebraska

scenario a
No new variant emerges
Vaccination for ages 5-11 begins Nov 1

Scenario B
No new variant emerges
No vaccination for ages 5-11 yrs

Scenario C
More transmissible variant emerges
Vaccination for ages 5-11 begins Nov 1

Scenario D
More transmissible variant emerges
No vaccination for ages 5-11 yrs

nevada

scenario a
No new variant emerges
Vaccination for ages 5-11 begins Nov 1

Scenario B
No new variant emerges
No vaccination for ages 5-11 yrs

Scenario C
More transmissible variant emerges
Vaccination for ages 5-11 begins Nov 1

Scenario D
More transmissible variant emerges
No vaccination for ages 5-11 yrs

new hampshire

scenario a
No new variant emerges
Vaccination for ages 5-11 begins Nov 1

Scenario B
No new variant emerges
No vaccination for ages 5-11 yrs

Scenario C
More transmissible variant emerges
Vaccination for ages 5-11 begins Nov 1

Scenario D
More transmissible variant emerges
No vaccination for ages 5-11 yrs

New Jersey

scenario a
No new variant emerges
Vaccination for ages 5-11 begins Nov 1

Scenario B
No new variant emerges
No vaccination for ages 5-11 yrs

Scenario C
More transmissible variant emerges
Vaccination for ages 5-11 begins Nov 1

Scenario D
More transmissible variant emerges
No vaccination for ages 5-11 yrs

New mexico

scenario a
No new variant emerges
Vaccination for ages 5-11 begins Nov 1

Scenario B
No new variant emerges
No vaccination for ages 5-11 yrs

Scenario C
More transmissible variant emerges
Vaccination for ages 5-11 begins Nov 1

Scenario D
More transmissible variant emerges
No vaccination for ages 5-11 yrs

New york

scenario a
No new variant emerges
Vaccination for ages 5-11 begins Nov 1

Scenario B
No new variant emerges
No vaccination for ages 5-11 yrs

Scenario C
More transmissible variant emerges
Vaccination for ages 5-11 begins Nov 1

Scenario D
More transmissible variant emerges
No vaccination for ages 5-11 yrs

North carolina

scenario a
No new variant emerges
Vaccination for ages 5-11 begins Nov 1

Scenario B
No new variant emerges
No vaccination for ages 5-11 yrs

Scenario C
More transmissible variant emerges
Vaccination for ages 5-11 begins Nov 1

Scenario D
More transmissible variant emerges
No vaccination for ages 5-11 yrs

north dakota

scenario a
No new variant emerges
Vaccination for ages 5-11 begins Nov 1

Scenario B
No new variant emerges
No vaccination for ages 5-11 yrs

Scenario C
More transmissible variant emerges
Vaccination for ages 5-11 begins Nov 1

Scenario D
More transmissible variant emerges
No vaccination for ages 5-11 yrs

ohio

scenario a
No new variant emerges
Vaccination for ages 5-11 begins Nov 1

Scenario B
No new variant emerges
No vaccination for ages 5-11 yrs

Scenario C
More transmissible variant emerges
Vaccination for ages 5-11 begins Nov 1

Scenario D
More transmissible variant emerges
No vaccination for ages 5-11 yrs

oklahoma

scenario a
No new variant emerges
Vaccination for ages 5-11 begins Nov 1

Scenario B
No new variant emerges
No vaccination for ages 5-11 yrs

Scenario C
More transmissible variant emerges
Vaccination for ages 5-11 begins Nov 1

Scenario D
More transmissible variant emerges
No vaccination for ages 5-11 yrs

Oregon

scenario a
No new variant emerges
Vaccination for ages 5-11 begins Nov 1

Scenario B
No new variant emerges
No vaccination for ages 5-11 yrs

Scenario C
More transmissible variant emerges
Vaccination for ages 5-11 begins Nov 1

Scenario D
More transmissible variant emerges
No vaccination for ages 5-11 yrs

Pennsylvania

scenario a
No new variant emerges
Vaccination for ages 5-11 begins Nov 1

Scenario B
No new variant emerges
No vaccination for ages 5-11 yrs

Scenario C
More transmissible variant emerges
Vaccination for ages 5-11 begins Nov 1

Scenario D
More transmissible variant emerges
No vaccination for ages 5-11 yrs

rhode island

scenario a
No new variant emerges
Vaccination for ages 5-11 begins Nov 1

Scenario B
No new variant emerges
No vaccination for ages 5-11 yrs

Scenario C
More transmissible variant emerges
Vaccination for ages 5-11 begins Nov 1

Scenario D
More transmissible variant emerges
No vaccination for ages 5-11 yrs

South Carolina

scenario a
No new variant emerges
Vaccination for ages 5-11 begins Nov 1

Scenario B
No new variant emerges
No vaccination for ages 5-11 yrs

Scenario C
More transmissible variant emerges
Vaccination for ages 5-11 begins Nov 1

Scenario D
More transmissible variant emerges
No vaccination for ages 5-11 yrs

south Dakota

scenario a
No new variant emerges
Vaccination for ages 5-11 begins Nov 1

Scenario B
No new variant emerges
No vaccination for ages 5-11 yrs

Scenario C
More transmissible variant emerges
Vaccination for ages 5-11 begins Nov 1

Scenario D
More transmissible variant emerges
No vaccination for ages 5-11 yrs

Tennessee

scenario a
No new variant emerges
Vaccination for ages 5-11 begins Nov 1

Scenario B
No new variant emerges
No vaccination for ages 5-11 yrs

Scenario C
More transmissible variant emerges
Vaccination for ages 5-11 begins Nov 1

Scenario D
More transmissible variant emerges
No vaccination for ages 5-11 yrs

texas

scenario a
No new variant emerges
Vaccination for ages 5-11 begins Nov 1

Scenario B
No new variant emerges
No vaccination for ages 5-11 yrs

Scenario C
More transmissible variant emerges
Vaccination for ages 5-11 begins Nov 1

Scenario D
More transmissible variant emerges
No vaccination for ages 5-11 yrs

Utah

scenario a
No new variant emerges
Vaccination for ages 5-11 begins Nov 1

Scenario B
No new variant emerges
No vaccination for ages 5-11 yrs

Scenario C
More transmissible variant emerges
Vaccination for ages 5-11 begins Nov 1

Scenario D
More transmissible variant emerges
No vaccination for ages 5-11 yrs

Vermont

scenario a
No new variant emerges
Vaccination for ages 5-11 begins Nov 1

Scenario B
No new variant emerges
No vaccination for ages 5-11 yrs

Scenario C
More transmissible variant emerges
Vaccination for ages 5-11 begins Nov 1

Scenario D
More transmissible variant emerges
No vaccination for ages 5-11 yrs

Virginia

scenario a
No new variant emerges
Vaccination for ages 5-11 begins Nov 1

Scenario B
No new variant emerges
No vaccination for ages 5-11 yrs

Scenario C
More transmissible variant emerges
Vaccination for ages 5-11 begins Nov 1

Scenario D
More transmissible variant emerges
No vaccination for ages 5-11 yrs

washington

scenario a
No new variant emerges
Vaccination for ages 5-11 begins Nov 1

Scenario B
No new variant emerges
No vaccination for ages 5-11 yrs

Scenario C
More transmissible variant emerges
Vaccination for ages 5-11 begins Nov 1

Scenario D
More transmissible variant emerges
No vaccination for ages 5-11 yrs

west virginia

scenario a
No new variant emerges
Vaccination for ages 5-11 begins Nov 1

Scenario B
No new variant emerges
No vaccination for ages 5-11 yrs

Scenario C
More transmissible variant emerges
Vaccination for ages 5-11 begins Nov 1

Scenario D
More transmissible variant emerges
No vaccination for ages 5-11 yrs

ARIZONA

scenario a
No new variant emerges
Vaccination for ages 5-11 begins Nov 1

Scenario B
No new variant emerges
No vaccination for ages 5-11 yrs

Scenario C
More transmissible variant emerges
Vaccination for ages 5-11 begins Nov 1

Scenario D
More transmissible variant emerges
No vaccination for ages 5-11 yrs

ARKANSAS

scenario a
No new variant emerges
Vaccination for ages 5-11 begins Nov 1

Scenario B
No new variant emerges
No vaccination for ages 5-11 yrs

Scenario C
More transmissible variant emerges
Vaccination for ages 5-11 begins Nov 1

Scenario D
More transmissible variant emerges
No vaccination for ages 5-11 yrs

scenario
definitions
round 6

United states Scenario PROJECTIONS

scenario a
Low vaccine hesitancy
Variant with low transmissibility increase

Scenario B
Low vaccine hesitancy
Variant with high transmissibility increase

Scenario C
High vaccine hesitancy
Variant with low transmissibility increase

Scenario D
High vaccine hesitancy
Variant with high transmissibility increase

SCENARIO projections by state

Select a state:

ALABAMA

scenario a
Low vaccine hesitancy
Variant with low transmissibility increase

Scenario B
Low vaccine hesitancy
Variant with high transmissibility increase

Scenario C
High vaccine hesitancy
Variant with low transmissibility increase

Scenario D
High vaccine hesitancy
Variant with high transmissibility increase

Alaska

scenario a
Low vaccine hesitancy
Variant with low transmissibility increase

Scenario B
Low vaccine hesitancy
Variant with high transmissibility increase

Scenario C
High vaccine hesitancy
Variant with low transmissibility increase

Scenario D
High vaccine hesitancy
Variant with high transmissibility increase

wisconsin

scenario a
Low vaccine hesitancy
Variant with low transmissibility increase

Scenario B
Low vaccine hesitancy
Variant with high transmissibility increase

Scenario C
High vaccine hesitancy
Variant with low transmissibility increase

Scenario D
High vaccine hesitancy
Variant with high transmissibility increase

wyoming

scenario a
Low vaccine hesitancy
Variant with low transmissibility increase

Scenario B
Low vaccine hesitancy
Variant with high transmissibility increase

Scenario C
High vaccine hesitancy
Variant with low transmissibility increase

Scenario D
High vaccine hesitancy
Variant with high transmissibility increase

ARIZONA

scenario a
High vaccination
Moderate NPI

Scenario B
High vaccination
Low NPI

Scenario C
Low vaccination
Moderate NPI

Scenario D
Low vaccination
Low NPI

arkansas

scenario a
High vaccination
Moderate NPI

Scenario B
High vaccination
Low NPI

Scenario C
Low vaccination
Moderate NPI

Scenario D
Low vaccination
Low NPI

california

scenario a
Low vaccine hesitancy
Variant with low transmissibility increase

Scenario B
Low vaccine hesitancy
Variant with high transmissibility increase

Scenario C
High vaccine hesitancy
Variant with low transmissibility increase

Scenario D
High vaccine hesitancy
Variant with high transmissibility increase

colorado

scenario a
Low vaccine hesitancy
Variant with low transmissibility increase

Scenario B
Low vaccine hesitancy
Variant with high transmissibility increase

Scenario C
High vaccine hesitancy
Variant with low transmissibility increase

Scenario D
High vaccine hesitancy
Variant with high transmissibility increase

connecticut

scenario a
Low vaccine hesitancy
Variant with low transmissibility increase

Scenario B
Low vaccine hesitancy
Variant with high transmissibility increase

Scenario C
High vaccine hesitancy
Variant with low transmissibility increase

Scenario D
High vaccine hesitancy
Variant with high transmissibility increase

delaware

scenario a
Low vaccine hesitancy
Variant with low transmissibility increase

Scenario B
Low vaccine hesitancy
Variant with high transmissibility increase

Scenario C
High vaccine hesitancy
Variant with low transmissibility increase

Scenario D
High vaccine hesitancy
Variant with high transmissibility increase

district of columbia

scenario a
Low vaccine hesitancy
Variant with low transmissibility increase

Scenario B
Low vaccine hesitancy
Variant with high transmissibility increase

Scenario C
High vaccine hesitancy
Variant with low transmissibility increase

Scenario D
High vaccine hesitancy
Variant with high transmissibility increase

florida

scenario a
Low vaccine hesitancy
Variant with low transmissibility increase

Scenario B
Low vaccine hesitancy
Variant with high transmissibility increase

Scenario C
High vaccine hesitancy
Variant with low transmissibility increase

Scenario D
High vaccine hesitancy
Variant with high transmissibility increase

georgia

scenario a
Low vaccine hesitancy
Variant with low transmissibility increase

Scenario B
Low vaccine hesitancy
Variant with high transmissibility increase

Scenario C
High vaccine hesitancy
Variant with low transmissibility increase

Scenario D
High vaccine hesitancy
Variant with high transmissibility increase

hawaii

scenario a
Low vaccine hesitancy
Variant with low transmissibility increase

Scenario B
Low vaccine hesitancy
Variant with high transmissibility increase

Scenario C
High vaccine hesitancy
Variant with low transmissibility increase

Scenario D
High vaccine hesitancy
Variant with high transmissibility increase

idaho

scenario a
Low vaccine hesitancy
Variant with low transmissibility increase

Scenario B
Low vaccine hesitancy
Variant with high transmissibility increase

Scenario C
High vaccine hesitancy
Variant with low transmissibility increase

Scenario D
High vaccine hesitancy
Variant with high transmissibility increase

illinois

scenario a
Low vaccine hesitancy
Variant with low transmissibility increase

Scenario B
Low vaccine hesitancy
Variant with high transmissibility increase

Scenario C
High vaccine hesitancy
Variant with low transmissibility increase

Scenario D
High vaccine hesitancy
Variant with high transmissibility increase

indiana

scenario a
Low vaccine hesitancy
Variant with low transmissibility increase

Scenario B
Low vaccine hesitancy
Variant with high transmissibility increase

Scenario C
High vaccine hesitancy
Variant with low transmissibility increase

Scenario D
High vaccine hesitancy
Variant with high transmissibility increase

iowa

scenario a
Low vaccine hesitancy
Variant with low transmissibility increase

Scenario B
Low vaccine hesitancy
Variant with high transmissibility increase

Scenario C
High vaccine hesitancy
Variant with low transmissibility increase

Scenario D
High vaccine hesitancy
Variant with high transmissibility increase

kansas

scenario a
Low vaccine hesitancy
Variant with low transmissibility increase

Scenario B
Low vaccine hesitancy
Variant with high transmissibility increase

Scenario C
High vaccine hesitancy
Variant with low transmissibility increase

Scenario D
High vaccine hesitancy
Variant with high transmissibility increase

kentucky

scenario a
Low vaccine hesitancy
Variant with low transmissibility increase

Scenario B
Low vaccine hesitancy
Variant with high transmissibility increase

Scenario C
High vaccine hesitancy
Variant with low transmissibility increase

Scenario D
High vaccine hesitancy
Variant with high transmissibility increase

louisiana

scenario a
Low vaccine hesitancy
Variant with low transmissibility increase

Scenario B
Low vaccine hesitancy
Variant with high transmissibility increase

Scenario C
High vaccine hesitancy
Variant with low transmissibility increase

Scenario D
High vaccine hesitancy
Variant with high transmissibility increase

maine

scenario a
Low vaccine hesitancy
Variant with low transmissibility increase

Scenario B
Low vaccine hesitancy
Variant with high transmissibility increase

Scenario C
High vaccine hesitancy
Variant with low transmissibility increase

Scenario D
High vaccine hesitancy
Variant with high transmissibility increase

maryland

scenario a
Low vaccine hesitancy
Variant with low transmissibility increase

Scenario B
Low vaccine hesitancy
Variant with high transmissibility increase

Scenario C
High vaccine hesitancy
Variant with low transmissibility increase

Scenario D
High vaccine hesitancy
Variant with high transmissibility increase

massachusetts

scenario a
Low vaccine hesitancy
Variant with low transmissibility increase

Scenario B
Low vaccine hesitancy
Variant with high transmissibility increase

Scenario C
High vaccine hesitancy
Variant with low transmissibility increase

Scenario D
High vaccine hesitancy
Variant with high transmissibility increase

michigan

scenario a
Low vaccine hesitancy
Variant with low transmissibility increase

Scenario B
Low vaccine hesitancy
Variant with high transmissibility increase

Scenario C
High vaccine hesitancy
Variant with low transmissibility increase

Scenario D
High vaccine hesitancy
Variant with high transmissibility increase

minnesota

scenario a
Low vaccine hesitancy
Variant with low transmissibility increase

Scenario B
Low vaccine hesitancy
Variant with high transmissibility increase

Scenario C
High vaccine hesitancy
Variant with low transmissibility increase

Scenario D
High vaccine hesitancy
Variant with high transmissibility increase

mississippi

scenario a
Low vaccine hesitancy
Variant with low transmissibility increase

Scenario B
Low vaccine hesitancy
Variant with high transmissibility increase

Scenario C
High vaccine hesitancy
Variant with low transmissibility increase

Scenario D
High vaccine hesitancy
Variant with high transmissibility increase

missouri

scenario a
Low vaccine hesitancy
Variant with low transmissibility increase

Scenario B
Low vaccine hesitancy
Variant with high transmissibility increase

Scenario C
High vaccine hesitancy
Variant with low transmissibility increase

Scenario D
High vaccine hesitancy
Variant with high transmissibility increase

montana

scenario a
Low vaccine hesitancy
Variant with low transmissibility increase

Scenario B
Low vaccine hesitancy
Variant with high transmissibility increase

Scenario C
High vaccine hesitancy
Variant with low transmissibility increase

Scenario D
High vaccine hesitancy
Variant with high transmissibility increase

nebraska

scenario a
Low vaccine hesitancy
Variant with low transmissibility increase

Scenario B
Low vaccine hesitancy
Variant with high transmissibility increase

Scenario C
High vaccine hesitancy
Variant with low transmissibility increase

Scenario D
High vaccine hesitancy
Variant with high transmissibility increase

nevada

scenario a
Low vaccine hesitancy
Variant with low transmissibility increase

Scenario B
Low vaccine hesitancy
Variant with high transmissibility increase

Scenario C
High vaccine hesitancy
Variant with low transmissibility increase

Scenario D
High vaccine hesitancy
Variant with high transmissibility increase

new hampshire

scenario a
Low vaccine hesitancy
Variant with low transmissibility increase

Scenario B
Low vaccine hesitancy
Variant with high transmissibility increase

Scenario C
High vaccine hesitancy
Variant with low transmissibility increase

Scenario D
High vaccine hesitancy
Variant with high transmissibility increase

New Jersey

scenario a
Low vaccine hesitancy
Variant with low transmissibility increase

Scenario B
Low vaccine hesitancy
Variant with high transmissibility increase

Scenario C
High vaccine hesitancy
Variant with low transmissibility increase

Scenario D
High vaccine hesitancy
Variant with high transmissibility increase

New mexico

scenario a
Low vaccine hesitancy
Variant with low transmissibility increase

Scenario B
Low vaccine hesitancy
Variant with high transmissibility increase

Scenario C
High vaccine hesitancy
Variant with low transmissibility increase

Scenario D
High vaccine hesitancy
Variant with high transmissibility increase

New york

scenario a
Low vaccine hesitancy
Variant with low transmissibility increase

Scenario B
Low vaccine hesitancy
Variant with high transmissibility increase

Scenario C
High vaccine hesitancy
Variant with low transmissibility increase

Scenario D
High vaccine hesitancy
Variant with high transmissibility increase

North carolina

scenario a
Low vaccine hesitancy
Variant with low transmissibility increase

Scenario B
Low vaccine hesitancy
Variant with high transmissibility increase

Scenario C
High vaccine hesitancy
Variant with low transmissibility increase

Scenario D
High vaccine hesitancy
Variant with high transmissibility increase

north dakota

scenario a
Low vaccine hesitancy
Variant with low transmissibility increase

Scenario B
Low vaccine hesitancy
Variant with high transmissibility increase

Scenario C
High vaccine hesitancy
Variant with low transmissibility increase

Scenario D
High vaccine hesitancy
Variant with high transmissibility increase

ohio

scenario a
Low vaccine hesitancy
Variant with low transmissibility increase

Scenario B
Low vaccine hesitancy
Variant with high transmissibility increase

Scenario C
High vaccine hesitancy
Variant with low transmissibility increase

Scenario D
High vaccine hesitancy
Variant with high transmissibility increase

oklahoma

scenario a
Low vaccine hesitancy
Variant with low transmissibility increase

Scenario B
Low vaccine hesitancy
Variant with high transmissibility increase

Scenario C
High vaccine hesitancy
Variant with low transmissibility increase

Scenario D
High vaccine hesitancy
Variant with high transmissibility increase

Oregon

scenario a
Low vaccine hesitancy
Variant with low transmissibility increase

Scenario B
Low vaccine hesitancy
Variant with high transmissibility increase

Scenario C
High vaccine hesitancy
Variant with low transmissibility increase

Scenario D
High vaccine hesitancy
Variant with high transmissibility increase

Pennsylvania

scenario a
Low vaccine hesitancy
Variant with low transmissibility increase

Scenario B
Low vaccine hesitancy
Variant with high transmissibility increase

Scenario C
High vaccine hesitancy
Variant with low transmissibility increase

Scenario D
High vaccine hesitancy
Variant with high transmissibility increase

rhode island

scenario a
Low vaccine hesitancy
Variant with low transmissibility increase

Scenario B
Low vaccine hesitancy
Variant with high transmissibility increase

Scenario C
High vaccine hesitancy
Variant with low transmissibility increase

Scenario D
High vaccine hesitancy
Variant with high transmissibility increase

South Carolina

scenario a
Low vaccine hesitancy
Variant with low transmissibility increase

Scenario B
Low vaccine hesitancy
Variant with high transmissibility increase

Scenario C
High vaccine hesitancy
Variant with low transmissibility increase

Scenario D
High vaccine hesitancy
Variant with high transmissibility increase

south Dakota

scenario a
Low vaccine hesitancy
Variant with low transmissibility increase

Scenario B
Low vaccine hesitancy
Variant with high transmissibility increase

Scenario C
High vaccine hesitancy
Variant with low transmissibility increase

Scenario D
High vaccine hesitancy
Variant with high transmissibility increase

Tennessee

scenario a
Low vaccine hesitancy
Variant with low transmissibility increase

Scenario B
Low vaccine hesitancy
Variant with high transmissibility increase

Scenario C
High vaccine hesitancy
Variant with low transmissibility increase

Scenario D
High vaccine hesitancy
Variant with high transmissibility increase

texas

scenario a
Low vaccine hesitancy
Variant with low transmissibility increase

Scenario B
Low vaccine hesitancy
Variant with high transmissibility increase

Scenario C
High vaccine hesitancy
Variant with low transmissibility increase

Scenario D
High vaccine hesitancy
Variant with high transmissibility increase

Utah

scenario a
Low vaccine hesitancy
Variant with low transmissibility increase

Scenario B
Low vaccine hesitancy
Variant with high transmissibility increase

Scenario C
High vaccine hesitancy
Variant with low transmissibility increase

Scenario D
High vaccine hesitancy
Variant with high transmissibility increase

Vermont

scenario a
Low vaccine hesitancy
Variant with low transmissibility increase

Scenario B
Low vaccine hesitancy
Variant with high transmissibility increase

Scenario C
High vaccine hesitancy
Variant with low transmissibility increase

Scenario D
High vaccine hesitancy
Variant with high transmissibility increase

Virginia

scenario a
Low vaccine hesitancy
Variant with low transmissibility increase

Scenario B
Low vaccine hesitancy
Variant with high transmissibility increase

Scenario C
High vaccine hesitancy
Variant with low transmissibility increase

Scenario D
High vaccine hesitancy
Variant with high transmissibility increase

washington

scenario a
Low vaccine hesitancy
Variant with low transmissibility increase

Scenario B
Low vaccine hesitancy
Variant with high transmissibility increase

Scenario C
High vaccine hesitancy
Variant with low transmissibility increase

Scenario D
High vaccine hesitancy
Variant with high transmissibility increase

west virginia

scenario a
Low vaccine hesitancy
Variant with low transmissibility increase

Scenario B
Low vaccine hesitancy
Variant with high transmissibility increase

Scenario C
High vaccine hesitancy
Variant with low transmissibility increase

Scenario D
High vaccine hesitancy
Variant with high transmissibility increase

ARIZONA

scenario a
Low vaccine hesitancy
Variant with low transmissibility increase

Scenario B
Low vaccine hesitancy
Variant with high transmissibility increase

Scenario C
High vaccine hesitancy
Variant with low transmissibility increase

Scenario D
High vaccine hesitancy
Variant with high transmissibility increase

ARKANSAS

scenario a
Low vaccine hesitancy
Variant with low transmissibility increase

Scenario B
Low vaccine hesitancy
Variant with high transmissibility increase

Scenario C
High vaccine hesitancy
Variant with low transmissibility increase

Scenario D
High vaccine hesitancy
Variant with high transmissibility increase

Figures show the median, the IQR and the 90%RR
scenario
definitions
ROUND 4

United states Scenario PROJECTIONS

scenario a
Low vaccine hesitancy
Moderate NPI

Scenario B
Low vaccine hesitancy
Low NPI

Scenario C
High vaccine hesitancy
Moderate NPI

Scenario D
High vaccine hesitancy
Low NPI

Figures show the median, the IQR and the 90%RR

SCENARIO projections by state

Select a state:

ALABAMA

scenario a
High vaccination
Moderate NPI

Scenario B
High vaccination
Low NPI

Scenario C
Low vaccination
Moderate NPI

Scenario D
Low vaccination
Low NPI

Alaska

scenario a
High vaccination
Moderate NPI

Scenario B
High vaccination
Low NPI

Scenario C
Low vaccination
Moderate NPI

Scenario D
Low vaccination
Low NPI

ARIZONA

scenario a
High vaccination
Moderate NPI

Scenario B
High vaccination
Low NPI

Scenario C
Low vaccination
Moderate NPI

Scenario D
Low vaccination
Low NPI

arkansas

scenario a
High vaccination
Moderate NPI

Scenario B
High vaccination
Low NPI

Scenario C
Low vaccination
Moderate NPI

Scenario D
Low vaccination
Low NPI

california

scenario a
High vaccination
Moderate NPI

Scenario B
High vaccination
Low NPI

Scenario C
Low vaccination
Moderate NPI

Scenario D
Low vaccination
Low NPI

colorado

scenario a
High vaccination
Moderate NPI

Scenario B
High vaccination
Low NPI

Scenario C
Low vaccination
Moderate NPI

Scenario D
Low vaccination
Low NPI

connecticut

scenario a
High vaccination
Moderate NPI

Scenario B
High vaccination
Low NPI

Scenario C
Low vaccination
Moderate NPI

Scenario D
Low vaccination
Low NPI

delaware

scenario a
High vaccination
Moderate NPI

Scenario B
High vaccination
Low NPI

Scenario C
Low vaccination
Moderate NPI

Scenario D
Low vaccination
Low NPI

district of columbia

scenario a
High vaccination
Moderate NPI

Scenario B
High vaccination
Low NPI

Scenario C
Low vaccination
Moderate NPI

Scenario D
Low vaccination
Low NPI

florida

scenario a
High vaccination
Moderate NPI

Scenario B
High vaccination
Low NPI

Scenario C
Low vaccination
Moderate NPI

Scenario D
Low vaccination
Low NPI

georgia

scenario a
High vaccination
Moderate NPI

Scenario B
High vaccination
Low NPI

Scenario C
Low vaccination
Moderate NPI

Scenario D
Low vaccination
Low NPI

hawaii

scenario a
High vaccination
Moderate NPI

Scenario B
High vaccination
Low NPI

Scenario C
Low vaccination
Moderate NPI

Scenario D
Low vaccination
Low NPI

idaho

scenario a
High vaccination
Moderate NPI

Scenario B
High vaccination
Low NPI

Scenario C
Low vaccination
Moderate NPI

Scenario D
Low vaccination
Low NPI

illinois

scenario a
High vaccination
Moderate NPI

Scenario B
High vaccination
Low NPI

Scenario C
Low vaccination
Moderate NPI

Scenario D
Low vaccination
Low NPI

indiana

scenario a
High vaccination
Moderate NPI

Scenario B
High vaccination
Low NPI

Scenario C
Low vaccination
Moderate NPI

Scenario D
Low vaccination
Low NPI

iowa

scenario a
High vaccination
Moderate NPI

Scenario B
High vaccination
Low NPI

Scenario C
Low vaccination
Moderate NPI

Scenario D
Low vaccination
Low NPI

kansas

scenario a
High vaccination
Moderate NPI

Scenario B
High vaccination
Low NPI

Scenario C
Low vaccination
Moderate NPI

Scenario D
Low vaccination
Low NPI

kentucky

scenario a
High vaccination
Moderate NPI

Scenario B
High vaccination
Low NPI

Scenario C
Low vaccination
Moderate NPI

Scenario D
Low vaccination
Low NPI

louisiana

scenario a
High vaccination
Moderate NPI

Scenario B
High vaccination
Low NPI

Scenario C
Low vaccination
Moderate NPI

Scenario D
Low vaccination
Low NPI

maine

scenario a
High vaccination
Moderate NPI

Scenario B
High vaccination
Low NPI

Scenario C
Low vaccination
Moderate NPI

Scenario D
Low vaccination
Low NPI

maryland

scenario a
High vaccination
Moderate NPI

Scenario B
High vaccination
Low NPI

Scenario C
Low vaccination
Moderate NPI

Scenario D
Low vaccination
Low NPI

massachusetts

scenario a
High vaccination
Moderate NPI

Scenario B
High vaccination
Low NPI

Scenario C
Low vaccination
Moderate NPI

Scenario D
Low vaccination
Low NPI

michigan

scenario a
High vaccination
Moderate NPI

Scenario B
High vaccination
Low NPI

Scenario C
Low vaccination
Moderate NPI

Scenario D
Low vaccination
Low NPI

minnesota

scenario a
High vaccination
Moderate NPI

Scenario B
High vaccination
Low NPI

Scenario C
Low vaccination
Moderate NPI

Scenario D
Low vaccination
Low NPI

mississippi

scenario a
High vaccination
Moderate NPI

Scenario B
High vaccination
Low NPI

Scenario C
Low vaccination
Moderate NPI

Scenario D
Low vaccination
Low NPI

missouri

scenario a
High vaccination
Moderate NPI

Scenario B
High vaccination
Low NPI

Scenario C
Low vaccination
Moderate NPI

Scenario D
Low vaccination
Low NPI

montana

scenario a
High vaccination
Moderate NPI

Scenario B
High vaccination
Low NPI

Scenario C
Low vaccination
Moderate NPI

Scenario D
Low vaccination
Low NPI

nebraska

scenario a
High vaccination
Moderate NPI

Scenario B
High vaccination
Low NPI

Scenario C
Low vaccination
Moderate NPI

Scenario D
Low vaccination
Low NPI

nevada

scenario a
High vaccination
Moderate NPI

Scenario B
High vaccination
Low NPI

Scenario C
Low vaccination
Moderate NPI

Scenario D
Low vaccination
Low NPI

new hampshire

scenario a
High vaccination
Moderate NPI

Scenario B
High vaccination
Low NPI

Scenario C
Low vaccination
Moderate NPI

Scenario D
Low vaccination
Low NPI

New Jersey

scenario a
High vaccination
Moderate NPI

Scenario B
High vaccination
Low NPI

Scenario C
Low vaccination
Moderate NPI

Scenario D
Low vaccination
Low NPI

New mexico

scenario a
High vaccination
Moderate NPI

Scenario B
High vaccination
low NPI

Scenario C
low vaccination
moderate NPI

Scenario D
low vaccination
low NPI

New york

scenario a
High vaccination
Moderate NPI

Scenario B
High vaccination
Low NPI

Scenario C
Low vaccination
Moderate NPI

Scenario D
Low vaccination
Low NPI

North carolina

scenario a
High vaccination
Moderate NPI

Scenario B
High vaccination
Low NPI

Scenario C
Low vaccination
Moderate NPI

Scenario D
Low vaccination
Low NPI

north dakota

scenario a
High vaccination
Moderate NPI

Scenario B
High vaccination
Low NPI

Scenario C
Low vaccination
Moderate NPI

Scenario D
Low vaccination
Low NPI

ohio

scenario a
High vaccination
Moderate NPI

Scenario B
High vaccination
Low NPI

Scenario C
Low vaccination
Moderate NPI

Scenario D
Low vaccination
Low NPI

oklahoma

scenario a
High vaccination
Moderate NPI

Scenario B
High vaccination
Low NPI

Scenario C
Low vaccination
Moderate NPI

Scenario D
Low vaccination
Low NPI

Oregon

scenario a
High vaccination
Moderate NPI

Scenario B
High vaccination
Low NPI

Scenario C
Low vaccination
Moderate NPI

Scenario D
Low vaccination
Low NPI

Pennsylvania

scenario a
High vaccination
Moderate NPI

Scenario B
High vaccination
Low NPI

Scenario C
Low vaccination
Moderate NPI

Scenario D
Low vaccination
Low NPI

rhode island

scenario a
High vaccination
Moderate NPI

Scenario B
High vaccination
Low NPI

Scenario C
Low vaccination
Moderate NPI

Scenario D
Low vaccination
Low NPI

South Carolina

scenario a
High vaccination
Moderate NPI

Scenario B
High vaccination
Low NPI

Scenario C
Low vaccination
Moderate NPI

Scenario D
Low vaccination
Low NPI

south Dakota

scenario a
High vaccination
Moderate NPI

Scenario B
High vaccination
Low NPI

Scenario C
Low vaccination
Moderate NPI

Scenario D
Low vaccination
Low NPI

Tennessee

scenario a
High vaccination
Moderate NPI

Scenario B
High vaccination
Low NPI

Scenario C
Low vaccination
Moderate NPI

Scenario D
Low vaccination
Low NPI

texas

scenario a
High vaccination
Moderate NPI

Scenario B
High vaccination
Low NPI

Scenario C
Low vaccination
Moderate NPI

Scenario D
Low vaccination
Low NPI

Utah

scenario a
High vaccination
Moderate NPI

Scenario B
High vaccination
Low NPI

Scenario C
Low vaccination
Moderate NPI

Scenario D
Low vaccination
Low NPI

Vermont

scenario a
High vaccination
Moderate NPI

Scenario B
High vaccination
Low NPI

Scenario C
Low vaccination
Moderate NPI

Scenario D
Low vaccination
Low NPI

Virginia

scenario a
High vaccination
Moderate NPI

Scenario B
High vaccination
Low NPI

Scenario C
Low vaccination
Moderate NPI

Scenario D
Low vaccination
Low NPI

washington

scenario a
High vaccination
Moderate NPI

Scenario B
High vaccination
Low NPI

Scenario C
Low vaccination
Moderate NPI

Scenario D
Low vaccination
Low NPI

west virginia

scenario a
High vaccination
Moderate NPI

Scenario B
High vaccination
Low NPI

Scenario C
Low vaccination
Moderate NPI

Scenario D
Low vaccination
Low NPI

wisconsin

scenario a
High vaccination
Moderate NPI

Scenario B
High vaccination
Low NPI

Scenario C
Low vaccination
Moderate NPI

Scenario D
Low vaccination
Low NPI

wyoming

scenario a
High vaccination
Moderate NPI

Scenario B
High vaccination
Low NPI

Scenario C
Low vaccination
Moderate NPI

Scenario D
Low vaccination
Low NPI

Figures show the median, the IQR and the 90%RR
scenario
definitions
ROUND 4

United states Scenario PROJECTIONS

scenario a
High vaccination
Moderate NPI

Scenario B
High vaccination
Low NPI

Scenario C
Low vaccination
‍Moderate NPI

Scenario D
Low vaccination
Low NPI

Figures show the median, the IQR and the 90%RR

SCENARIO projections by state

Select a state:

ALABAMA

scenario a
High vaccination
Moderate NPI

Scenario B
High vaccination
Low NPI

Scenario C
Low vaccination
Moderate NPI

Scenario D
Low vaccination
Low NPI

Alaska

scenario a
High vaccination
Moderate NPI

Scenario B
High vaccination
Low NPI

Scenario C
Low vaccination
Moderate NPI

Scenario D
Low vaccination
Low NPI

wyoming

scenario a
High vaccination
Moderate NPI

Scenario B
High vaccination
Low NPI

Scenario C
Low vaccination
Moderate NPI

Scenario D
Low vaccination
Low NPI

ARIZONA

scenario a
High vaccination
Moderate NPI

Scenario B
High vaccination
Low NPI

Scenario C
Low vaccination
Moderate NPI

Scenario D
Low vaccination
Low NPI

arkansas

scenario a
High vaccination
Moderate NPI

Scenario B
High vaccination
Low NPI

Scenario C
Low vaccination
Moderate NPI

Scenario D
Low vaccination
Low NPI

california

scenario a
High vaccination
Moderate NPI

Scenario B
High vaccination
Low NPI

Scenario C
Low vaccination
Moderate NPI

Scenario D
Low vaccination
Low NPI

colorado

scenario a
High vaccination
Moderate NPI

Scenario B
High vaccination
Low NPI

Scenario C
Low vaccination
Moderate NPI

Scenario D
Low vaccination
Low NPI

connecticut

scenario a
High vaccination
Moderate NPI

Scenario B
High vaccination
Low NPI

Scenario C
Low vaccination
Moderate NPI

Scenario D
Low vaccination
Low NPI

delaware

scenario a
High vaccination
Moderate NPI

Scenario B
High vaccination
Low NPI

Scenario C
Low vaccination
Moderate NPI

Scenario D
Low vaccination
Low NPI

district of columbia

scenario a
High vaccination
Moderate NPI

Scenario B
High vaccination
Low NPI

Scenario C
Low vaccination
Moderate NPI

Scenario D
Low vaccination
Low NPI

florida

scenario a
High vaccination
Moderate NPI

Scenario B
High vaccination
Low NPI

Scenario C
Low vaccination
Moderate NPI

Scenario D
Low vaccination
Low NPI

georgia

scenario a
High vaccination
Moderate NPI

Scenario B
High vaccination
Low NPI

Scenario C
Low vaccination
Moderate NPI

Scenario D
Low vaccination
Low NPI

hawaii

scenario a
High vaccination
Moderate NPI

Scenario B
High vaccination
Low NPI

Scenario C
Low vaccination
Moderate NPI

Scenario D
Low vaccination
Low NPI

idaho

scenario a
High vaccination
Moderate NPI

Scenario B
High vaccination
Low NPI

Scenario C
Low vaccination
Moderate NPI

Scenario D
Low vaccination
Low NPI

illinois

scenario a
High vaccination
Moderate NPI

Scenario B
High vaccination
Low NPI

Scenario C
Low vaccination
Moderate NPI

Scenario D
Low vaccination
Low NPI

indiana

scenario a
High vaccination
Moderate NPI

Scenario B
High vaccination
Low NPI

Scenario C
Low vaccination
Moderate NPI

Scenario D
Low vaccination
Low NPI

iowa

scenario a
High vaccination
Moderate NPI

Scenario B
High vaccination
Low NPI

Scenario C
Low vaccination
Moderate NPI

Scenario D
Low vaccination
Low NPI

kansas

scenario a
High vaccination
Moderate NPI

Scenario B
High vaccination
Low NPI

Scenario C
Low vaccination
Moderate NPI

Scenario D
Low vaccination
Low NPI

kentucky

scenario a
High vaccination
Moderate NPI

Scenario B
High vaccination
Low NPI

Scenario C
Low vaccination
Moderate NPI

Scenario D
Low vaccination
Low NPI

louisiana

scenario a
High vaccination
Moderate NPI

Scenario B
High vaccination
Low NPI

Scenario C
Low vaccination
Moderate NPI

Scenario D
Low vaccination
Low NPI

maine

scenario a
High vaccination
Moderate NPI

Scenario B
High vaccination
Low NPI

Scenario C
Low vaccination
Moderate NPI

Scenario D
Low vaccination
Low NPI

maryland

scenario a
High vaccination
Moderate NPI

Scenario B
High vaccination
Low NPI

Scenario C
Low vaccination
Moderate NPI

Scenario D
Low vaccination
Low NPI

massachusetts

scenario a
High vaccination
Moderate NPI

Scenario B
High vaccination
Low NPI

Scenario C
Low vaccination
Moderate NPI

Scenario D
Low vaccination
Low NPI

michigan

scenario a
High vaccination
Moderate NPI

Scenario B
High vaccination
Low NPI

Scenario C
Low vaccination
Moderate NPI

Scenario D
Low vaccination
Low NPI

minnesota

scenario a
High vaccination
Moderate NPI

Scenario B
High vaccination
Low NPI

Scenario C
Low vaccination
Moderate NPI

Scenario D
Low vaccination
Low NPI

mississippi

scenario a
High vaccination
Moderate NPI

Scenario B
High vaccination
Low NPI

Scenario C
Low vaccination
Moderate NPI

Scenario D
Low vaccination
Low NPI

missouri

scenario a
High vaccination
Moderate NPI

Scenario B
High vaccination
Low NPI

Scenario C
Low vaccination
Moderate NPI

Scenario D
Low vaccination
Low NPI

montana

scenario a
High vaccination
Moderate NPI

Scenario B
High vaccination
Low NPI

Scenario C
Low vaccination
Moderate NPI

Scenario D
Low vaccination
Low NPI

nebraska

scenario a
High vaccination
Moderate NPI

Scenario B
High vaccination
Low NPI

Scenario C
Low vaccination
Moderate NPI

Scenario D
Low vaccination
Low NPI

nevada

scenario a
High vaccination
Moderate NPI

Scenario B
High vaccination
Low NPI

Scenario C
Low vaccination
Moderate NPI

Scenario D
Low vaccination
Low NPI

new hampshire

scenario a
High vaccination
Moderate NPI

Scenario B
High vaccination
Low NPI

Scenario C
Low vaccination
Moderate NPI

Scenario D
Low vaccination
Low NPI

New Jersey

scenario a
High vaccination
Moderate NPI

Scenario B
High vaccination
Low NPI

Scenario C
Low vaccination
Moderate NPI

Scenario D
Low vaccination
Low NPI

New mexico

scenario a
High vaccination
Moderate NPI

Scenario B
High vaccination
low NPI

Scenario C
low vaccination
moderate NPI

Scenario D
low vaccination
low NPI

New york

scenario a
High vaccination
Moderate NPI

Scenario B
High vaccination
Low NPI

Scenario C
Low vaccination
Moderate NPI

Scenario D
Low vaccination
Low NPI

North carolina

scenario a
High vaccination
Moderate NPI

Scenario B
High vaccination
Low NPI

Scenario C
Low vaccination
Moderate NPI

Scenario D
Low vaccination
Low NPI

north dakota

scenario a
High vaccination
Moderate NPI

Scenario B
High vaccination
Low NPI

Scenario C
Low vaccination
Moderate NPI

Scenario D
Low vaccination
Low NPI

ohio

scenario a
High vaccination
Moderate NPI

Scenario B
High vaccination
Low NPI

Scenario C
Low vaccination
Moderate NPI

Scenario D
Low vaccination
Low NPI

oklahoma

scenario a
High vaccination
Moderate NPI

Scenario B
High vaccination
Low NPI

Scenario C
Low vaccination
Moderate NPI

Scenario D
Low vaccination
Low NPI

Oregon

scenario a
High vaccination
Moderate NPI

Scenario B
High vaccination
Low NPI

Scenario C
Low vaccination
Moderate NPI

Scenario D
Low vaccination
Low NPI

Pennsylvania

scenario a
High vaccination
Moderate NPI

Scenario B
High vaccination
Low NPI

Scenario C
Low vaccination
Moderate NPI

Scenario D
Low vaccination
Low NPI

rhode island

scenario a
High vaccination
Moderate NPI

Scenario B
High vaccination
Low NPI

Scenario C
Low vaccination
Moderate NPI

Scenario D
Low vaccination
Low NPI

South Carolina

scenario a
High vaccination
Moderate NPI

Scenario B
High vaccination
Low NPI

Scenario C
Low vaccination
Moderate NPI

Scenario D
Low vaccination
Low NPI

south Dakota

scenario a
High vaccination
Moderate NPI

Scenario B
High vaccination
Low NPI

Scenario C
Low vaccination
Moderate NPI

Scenario D
Low vaccination
Low NPI

Tennessee

scenario a
High vaccination
Moderate NPI

Scenario B
High vaccination
Low NPI

Scenario C
Low vaccination
Moderate NPI

Scenario D
Low vaccination
Low NPI

texas

scenario a
High vaccination
Moderate NPI

Scenario B
High vaccination
Low NPI

Scenario C
Low vaccination
Moderate NPI

Scenario D
Low vaccination
Low NPI

Utah

scenario a
High vaccination
Moderate NPI

Scenario B
High vaccination
Low NPI

Scenario C
Low vaccination
Moderate NPI

Scenario D
Low vaccination
Low NPI

Vermont

scenario a
High vaccination
Moderate NPI

Scenario B
High vaccination
Low NPI

Scenario C
Low vaccination
Moderate NPI

Scenario D
Low vaccination
Low NPI

Virginia

scenario a
High vaccination
Moderate NPI

Scenario B
High vaccination
Low NPI

Scenario C
Low vaccination
Moderate NPI

Scenario D
Low vaccination
Low NPI

washington

scenario a
High vaccination
Moderate NPI

Scenario B
High vaccination
Low NPI

Scenario C
Low vaccination
Moderate NPI

Scenario D
Low vaccination
Low NPI

west virginia

scenario a
High vaccination
Moderate NPI

Scenario B
High vaccination
Low NPI

Scenario C
Low vaccination
Moderate NPI

Scenario D
Low vaccination
Low NPI

wisconsin

scenario a
High vaccination
Moderate NPI

Scenario B
High vaccination
Low NPI

Scenario C
Low vaccination
Moderate NPI

Scenario D
Low vaccination
Low NPI

arizona

scenario a
High vaccination
Moderate NPI

Scenario B
High vaccination
Low NPI

Scenario C
Low vaccination
Moderate NPI

Scenario D
Low vaccination
Low NPI

Figures show the median, the IQR and the 90%RR
scenario
definitions
round 5

United states Scenario PROJECTIONS

scenario a
High vaccination
Moderate NPI

Scenario B
High vaccination
Low NPI

Scenario C
Low vaccination
‍Moderate NPI

Scenario D
Low vaccination
Low NPI

SCENARIO projections by state

Select a state:

ALABAMA

scenario a
High vaccination
Moderate NPI

Scenario B
High vaccination
Low NPI

Scenario C
Low vaccination
Moderate NPI

Scenario D
Low vaccination
Low NPI

Alaska

scenario a
High vaccination
Moderate NPI

Scenario B
High vaccination
Low NPI

Scenario C
Low vaccination
Moderate NPI

Scenario D
Low vaccination
Low NPI

maine

scenario a
High vaccination
Moderate NPI

Scenario B
High vaccination
Low NPI

Scenario C
Low vaccination
Moderate NPI

Scenario D
Low vaccination
Low NPI

wyoming

scenario a
High vaccination
Moderate NPI

Scenario B
High vaccination
Low NPI

Scenario C
Low vaccination
Moderate NPI

Scenario D
Low vaccination
Low NPI

ARIZONA

scenario a
High vaccination
Moderate NPI

Scenario B
High vaccination
Low NPI

Scenario C
Low vaccination
Moderate NPI

Scenario D
Low vaccination
Low NPI

arkansas

scenario a
High vaccination
Moderate NPI

Scenario B
High vaccination
Low NPI

Scenario C
Low vaccination
Moderate NPI

Scenario D
Low vaccination
Low NPI

california

scenario a
High vaccination
Moderate NPI

Scenario B
High vaccination
Low NPI

Scenario C
Low vaccination
Moderate NPI

Scenario D
Low vaccination
Low NPI

colorado

scenario a
High vaccination
Moderate NPI

Scenario B
High vaccination
Low NPI

Scenario C
Low vaccination
Moderate NPI

Scenario D
Low vaccination
Low NPI

connecticut

scenario a
High vaccination
Moderate NPI

Scenario B
High vaccination
Low NPI

Scenario C
Low vaccination
Moderate NPI

Scenario D
Low vaccination
Low NPI

delaware

scenario a
High vaccination
Moderate NPI

Scenario B
High vaccination
Low NPI

Scenario C
Low vaccination
Moderate NPI

Scenario D
Low vaccination
Low NPI

district of columbia

scenario a
High vaccination
Moderate NPI

Scenario B
High vaccination
Low NPI

Scenario C
Low vaccination
Moderate NPI

Scenario D
Low vaccination
Low NPI

florida

scenario a
High vaccination
Moderate NPI

Scenario B
High vaccination
Low NPI

Scenario C
Low vaccination
Moderate NPI

Scenario D
Low vaccination
Low NPI

georgia

scenario a
High vaccination
Moderate NPI

Scenario B
High vaccination
Low NPI

Scenario C
Low vaccination
Moderate NPI

Scenario D
Low vaccination
Low NPI

hawaii

scenario a
High vaccination
Moderate NPI

Scenario B
High vaccination
Low NPI

Scenario C
Low vaccination
Moderate NPI

Scenario D
Low vaccination
Low NPI

idaho

scenario a
High vaccination
Moderate NPI

Scenario B
High vaccination
Low NPI

Scenario C
Low vaccination
Moderate NPI

Scenario D
Low vaccination
Low NPI

illinois

scenario a
High vaccination
Moderate NPI

Scenario B
High vaccination
Low NPI

Scenario C
Low vaccination
Moderate NPI

Scenario D
Low vaccination
Low NPI

indiana

scenario a
High vaccination
Moderate NPI

Scenario B
High vaccination
Low NPI

Scenario C
Low vaccination
Moderate NPI

Scenario D
Low vaccination
Low NPI

iowa

scenario a
High vaccination
Moderate NPI

Scenario B
High vaccination
Low NPI

Scenario C
Low vaccination
Moderate NPI

Scenario D
Low vaccination
Low NPI

kansas

scenario a
High vaccination
Moderate NPI

Scenario B
High vaccination
Low NPI

Scenario C
Low vaccination
Moderate NPI

Scenario D
Low vaccination
Low NPI

kentucky

scenario a
High vaccination
Moderate NPI

Scenario B
High vaccination
Low NPI

Scenario C
Low vaccination
Moderate NPI

Scenario D
Low vaccination
Low NPI

louisiana

scenario a
High vaccination
Moderate NPI

Scenario B
High vaccination
Low NPI

Scenario C
Low vaccination
Moderate NPI

Scenario D
Low vaccination
Low NPI

wisconsin

scenario a
High vaccination
Moderate NPI

Scenario B
High vaccination
Low NPI

Scenario C
Low vaccination
Moderate NPI

Scenario D
Low vaccination
Low NPI

maryland

scenario a
High vaccination
Moderate NPI

Scenario B
High vaccination
Low NPI

Scenario C
Low vaccination
Moderate NPI

Scenario D
Low vaccination
Low NPI

Arizona

scenario a
High vaccination
Moderate NPI

Scenario B
High vaccination
Low NPI

Scenario C
Low vaccination
Moderate NPI

Scenario D
Low vaccination
Low NPI

michigan

scenario a
High vaccination
Moderate NPI

Scenario B
High vaccination
Low NPI

Scenario C
Low vaccination
Moderate NPI

Scenario D
Low vaccination
Low NPI

minnesota

scenario a
High vaccination
Moderate NPI

Scenario B
High vaccination
Low NPI

Scenario C
Low vaccination
Moderate NPI

Scenario D
Low vaccination
Low NPI

mississippi

scenario a
High vaccination
Moderate NPI

Scenario B
High vaccination
Low NPI

Scenario C
Low vaccination
Moderate NPI

Scenario D
Low vaccination
Low NPI

missouri

scenario a
High vaccination
Moderate NPI

Scenario B
High vaccination
Low NPI

Scenario C
Low vaccination
Moderate NPI

Scenario D
Low vaccination
Low NPI

montana

scenario a
High vaccination
Moderate NPI

Scenario B
High vaccination
Low NPI

Scenario C
Low vaccination
Moderate NPI

Scenario D
Low vaccination
Low NPI

nebraska

scenario a
High vaccination
Moderate NPI

Scenario B
High vaccination
Low NPI

Scenario C
Low vaccination
Moderate NPI

Scenario D
Low vaccination
Low NPI

nevada

scenario a
High vaccination
Moderate NPI

Scenario B
High vaccination
Low NPI

Scenario C
Low vaccination
Moderate NPI

Scenario D
Low vaccination
Low NPI

new hampshire

scenario a
High vaccination
Moderate NPI

Scenario B
High vaccination
Low NPI

Scenario C
Low vaccination
Moderate NPI

Scenario D
Low vaccination
Low NPI

New Jersey

scenario a
High vaccination
Moderate NPI

Scenario B
High vaccination
Low NPI

Scenario C
Low vaccination
Moderate NPI

Scenario D
Low vaccination
Low NPI

New mexico

scenario a
High vaccination
Moderate NPI

Scenario B
High vaccination
Low NPI

Scenario C
Low vaccination
Moderate NPI

Scenario D
Low vaccination
Low NPI

New york

scenario a
High vaccination
Moderate NPI

Scenario B
High vaccination
Low NPI

Scenario C
Low vaccination
Moderate NPI

Scenario D
Low vaccination
Low NPI

North carolina

scenario a
High vaccination
Moderate NPI

Scenario B
High vaccination
Low NPI

Scenario C
Low vaccination
Moderate NPI

Scenario D
Low vaccination
Low NPI

north dakota

scenario a
High vaccination
Moderate NPI

Scenario B
High vaccination
Low NPI

Scenario C
Low vaccination
Moderate NPI

Scenario D
Low vaccination
Low NPI

ohio

scenario a
High vaccination
Moderate NPI

Scenario B
High vaccination
Low NPI

Scenario C
Low vaccination
Moderate NPI

Scenario D
Low vaccination
Low NPI

oklahoma

scenario a
High vaccination
Moderate NPI

Scenario B
High vaccination
Low NPI

Scenario C
Low vaccination
Moderate NPI

Scenario D
Low vaccination
Low NPI

Oregon

scenario a
High vaccination
Moderate NPI

Scenario B
High vaccination
Low NPI

Scenario C
Low vaccination
Moderate NPI

Scenario D
Low vaccination
Low NPI

Pennsylvania

scenario a
High vaccination
Moderate NPI

Scenario B
High vaccination
Low NPI

Scenario C
Low vaccination
Moderate NPI

Scenario D
Low vaccination
Low NPI

rhode island

scenario a
High vaccination
Moderate NPI

Scenario B
High vaccination
Low NPI

Scenario C
Low vaccination
Moderate NPI

Scenario D
Low vaccination
Low NPI

South Carolina

scenario a
High vaccination
Moderate NPI

Scenario B
High vaccination
Low NPI

Scenario C
Low vaccination
Moderate NPI

Scenario D
Low vaccination
Low NPI

south Dakota

scenario a
High vaccination
Moderate NPI

Scenario B
High vaccination
Low NPI

Scenario C
Low vaccination
Moderate NPI

Scenario D
Low vaccination
Low NPI

Tennessee

scenario a
High vaccination
Moderate NPI

Scenario B
High vaccination
Low NPI

Scenario C
Low vaccination
Moderate NPI

Scenario D
Low vaccination
Low NPI

texas

scenario a
High vaccination
Moderate NPI

Scenario B
High vaccination
Low NPI

Scenario C
Low vaccination
Moderate NPI

Scenario D
Low vaccination
Low NPI

Utah

scenario a
High vaccination
Moderate NPI

Scenario B
High vaccination
Low NPI

Scenario C
Low vaccination
Moderate NPI

Scenario D
Low vaccination
Low NPI

Vermont

scenario a
High vaccination
Moderate NPI

Scenario B
High vaccination
Low NPI

Scenario C
Low vaccination
Moderate NPI

Scenario D
Low vaccination
Low NPI

Virginia

scenario a
High vaccination
Moderate NPI

Scenario B
High vaccination
Low NPI

Scenario C
Low vaccination
Moderate NPI

Scenario D
Low vaccination
Low NPI

washington

scenario a
High vaccination
Moderate NPI

Scenario B
High vaccination
Low NPI

Scenario C
Low vaccination
Moderate NPI

Scenario D
Low vaccination
Low NPI

west virginia

scenario a
High vaccination
Moderate NPI

Scenario B
High vaccination
Low NPI

Scenario C
Low vaccination
Moderate NPI

Scenario D
Low vaccination
Low NPI

massachusetts

scenario a
High vaccination
Moderate NPI

Scenario B
High vaccination
Low NPI

Scenario C
Low vaccination
Moderate NPI

Scenario D
Low vaccination
Low NPI

ARKANSAS

scenario a
High vaccination
Moderate NPI

Scenario B
High vaccination
Low NPI

Scenario C
Low vaccination
Moderate NPI

Scenario D
Low vaccination
Low NPI

Figures show the median, the IQR and the 90%RR
scenario
definitions
round 8

United states Scenario PROJECTIONS

scenario a
No waning
High protection against infection

Scenario B
Fast waning of immunity
High protection against infection

Scenario C
Slow waning of immunity
Low protection against infection

Scenario D
Fast waning of immunity
Low protection against infection

SCENARIO projections by state

ALABAMA

scenario a
No waning
High protection against infection

Scenario B
Fast waning of immunity
High protection against infection

Scenario C
Slow waning of immunity
Low protection against infection

Scenario D
Fast waning of immunity
Low protection against infection

Alaska

scenario a
No waning
High protection against infection

Scenario B
Fast waning of immunity
High protection against infection

Scenario C
Slow waning of immunity
Low protection against infection

Scenario D
Fast waning of immunity
Low protection against infection

wisconsin

scenario a
No waning
High protection against infection

Scenario B
Fast waning of immunity
High protection against infection

Scenario C
Slow waning of immunity
Low protection against infection

Scenario D
Fast waning of immunity
Low protection against infection

wyoming

scenario a
No waning
High protection against infection

Scenario B
Fast waning of immunity
High protection against infection

Scenario C
Slow waning of immunity
Low protection against infection

Scenario D
Fast waning of immunity
Low protection against infection

ARIZONA

scenario a
High vaccination
Moderate NPI

Scenario B
High vaccination
Low NPI

Scenario C
Low vaccination
Moderate NPI

Scenario D
Low vaccination
Low NPI

arkansas

scenario a
High vaccination
Moderate NPI

Scenario B
High vaccination
Low NPI

Scenario C
Low vaccination
Moderate NPI

Scenario D
Low vaccination
Low NPI

california

scenario a
No waning
High protection against infection

Scenario B
Fast waning of immunity
High protection against infection

Scenario C
Slow waning of immunity
Low protection against infection

Scenario D
Fast waning of immunity
Low protection against infection

colorado

scenario a
No waning
High protection against infection

Scenario B
Fast waning of immunity
High protection against infection

Scenario C
Slow waning of immunity
Low protection against infection

Scenario D
Fast waning of immunity
Low protection against infection

connecticut

scenario a
No waning
High protection against infection

Scenario B
Fast waning of immunity
High protection against infection

Scenario C
Slow waning of immunity
Low protection against infection

Scenario D
Fast waning of immunity
Low protection against infection

delaware

scenario a
No waning
High protection against infection

Scenario B
Fast waning of immunity
High protection against infection

Scenario C
Slow waning of immunity
Low protection against infection

Scenario D
Fast waning of immunity
Low protection against infection

district of columbia

scenario a
No waning
High protection against infection

Scenario B
Fast waning of immunity
High protection against infection

Scenario C
Slow waning of immunity
Low protection against infection

Scenario D
Fast waning of immunity
Low protection against infection

florida

scenario a
No waning
High protection against infection

Scenario B
Fast waning of immunity
High protection against infection

Scenario C
Slow waning of immunity
Low protection against infection

Scenario D
Fast waning of immunity
Low protection against infection

georgia

scenario a
No waning
High protection against infection

Scenario B
Fast waning of immunity
High protection against infection

Scenario C
Slow waning of immunity
Low protection against infection

Scenario D
Fast waning of immunity
Low protection against infection

hawaii

scenario a
No waning
High protection against infection

Scenario B
Fast waning of immunity
High protection against infection

Scenario C
Slow waning of immunity
Low protection against infection

Scenario D
Fast waning of immunity
Low protection against infection

idaho

scenario a
No waning
High protection against infection

Scenario B
Fast waning of immunity
High protection against infection

Scenario C
Slow waning of immunity
Low protection against infection

Scenario D
Fast waning of immunity
Low protection against infection

illinois

scenario a
No waning
High protection against infection

Scenario B
Fast waning of immunity
High protection against infection

Scenario C
Slow waning of immunity
Low protection against infection

Scenario D
Fast waning of immunity
Low protection against infection

indiana

scenario a
No waning
High protection against infection

Scenario B
Fast waning of immunity
High protection against infection

Scenario C
Slow waning of immunity
Low protection against infection

Scenario D
Fast waning of immunity
Low protection against infection

iowa

scenario a
No waning
High protection against infection

Scenario B
Fast waning of immunity
High protection against infection

Scenario C
Slow waning of immunity
Low protection against infection

Scenario D
Fast waning of immunity
Low protection against infection

kansas

scenario a
No waning
High protection against infection

Scenario B
Fast waning of immunity
High protection against infection

Scenario C
Slow waning of immunity
Low protection against infection

Scenario D
Fast waning of immunity
Low protection against infection

kentucky

scenario a
No waning
High protection against infection

Scenario B
Fast waning of immunity
High protection against infection

Scenario C
Slow waning of immunity
Low protection against infection

Scenario D
Fast waning of immunity
Low protection against infection

louisiana

scenario a
No waning
High protection against infection

Scenario B
Fast waning of immunity
High protection against infection

Scenario C
Slow waning of immunity
Low protection against infection

Scenario D
Fast waning of immunity
Low protection against infection

maine

scenario a
No waning
High protection against infection

Scenario B
Fast waning of immunity
High protection against infection

Scenario C
Slow waning of immunity
Low protection against infection

Scenario D
Fast waning of immunity
Low protection against infection

maryland

scenario a
No waning
High protection against infection

Scenario B
Fast waning of immunity
High protection against infection

Scenario C
Slow waning of immunity
Low protection against infection

Scenario D
Fast waning of immunity
Low protection against infection

massachusetts

scenario a
No waning
High protection against infection

Scenario B
Fast waning of immunity
High protection against infection

Scenario C
Slow waning of immunity
Low protection against infection

Scenario D
Fast waning of immunity
Low protection against infection

michigan

scenario a
No waning
High protection against infection

Scenario B
Fast waning of immunity
High protection against infection

Scenario C
Slow waning of immunity
Low protection against infection

Scenario D
Fast waning of immunity
Low protection against infection

minnesota

scenario a
No waning
High protection against infection

Scenario B
Fast waning of immunity
High protection against infection

Scenario C
Slow waning of immunity
Low protection against infection

Scenario D
Fast waning of immunity
Low protection against infection

mississippi

scenario a
No waning
High protection against infection

Scenario B
Fast waning of immunity
High protection against infection

Scenario C
Slow waning of immunity
Low protection against infection

Scenario D
Fast waning of immunity
Low protection against infection

missouri

scenario a
No waning
High protection against infection

Scenario B
Fast waning of immunity
High protection against infection

Scenario C
Slow waning of immunity
Low protection against infection

Scenario D
Fast waning of immunity
Low protection against infection

montana

scenario a
No waning
High protection against infection

Scenario B
Fast waning of immunity
High protection against infection

Scenario C
Slow waning of immunity
Low protection against infection

Scenario D
Fast waning of immunity
Low protection against infection

nebraska

scenario a
No waning
High protection against infection

Scenario B
Fast waning of immunity
High protection against infection

Scenario C
Slow waning of immunity
Low protection against infection

Scenario D
Fast waning of immunity
Low protection against infection

nevada

scenario a
No waning
High protection against infection

Scenario B
Fast waning of immunity
High protection against infection

Scenario C
Slow waning of immunity
Low protection against infection

Scenario D
Fast waning of immunity
Low protection against infection

new hampshire

scenario a
No waning
High protection against infection

Scenario B
Fast waning of immunity
High protection against infection

Scenario C
Slow waning of immunity
Low protection against infection

Scenario D
Fast waning of immunity
Low protection against infection

New Jersey

scenario a
No waning
High protection against infection

Scenario B
Fast waning of immunity
High protection against infection

Scenario C
Slow waning of immunity
Low protection against infection

Scenario D
Fast waning of immunity
Low protection against infection

New mexico

scenario a
No waning
High protection against infection

Scenario B
Fast waning of immunity
High protection against infection

Scenario C
Slow waning of immunity
Low protection against infection

Scenario D
Fast waning of immunity
Low protection against infection

New york

scenario a
No waning
High protection against infection

Scenario B
Fast waning of immunity
High protection against infection

Scenario C
Slow waning of immunity
Low protection against infection

Scenario D
Fast waning of immunity
Low protection against infection

North carolina

scenario a
No waning
High protection against infection

Scenario B
Fast waning of immunity
High protection against infection

Scenario C
Slow waning of immunity
Low protection against infection

Scenario D
Fast waning of immunity
Low protection against infection

north dakota

scenario a
No waning
High protection against infection

Scenario B
Fast waning of immunity
High protection against infection

Scenario C
Slow waning of immunity
Low protection against infection

Scenario D
Fast waning of immunity
Low protection against infection

ohio

scenario a
No waning
High protection against infection

Scenario B
Fast waning of immunity
High protection against infection

Scenario C
Slow waning of immunity
Low protection against infection

Scenario D
Fast waning of immunity
Low protection against infection

oklahoma

scenario a
No waning
High protection against infection

Scenario B
Fast waning of immunity
High protection against infection

Scenario C
Slow waning of immunity
Low protection against infection

Scenario D
Fast waning of immunity
Low protection against infection

Oregon

scenario a
No waning
High protection against infection

Scenario B
Fast waning of immunity
High protection against infection

Scenario C
Slow waning of immunity
Low protection against infection

Scenario D
Fast waning of immunity
Low protection against infection

Pennsylvania

scenario a
No waning
High protection against infection

Scenario B
Fast waning of immunity
High protection against infection

Scenario C
Slow waning of immunity
Low protection against infection

Scenario D
Fast waning of immunity
Low protection against infection

rhode island

scenario a
No waning
High protection against infection

Scenario B
Fast waning of immunity
High protection against infection

Scenario C
Slow waning of immunity
Low protection against infection

Scenario D
Fast waning of immunity
Low protection against infection

South Carolina

scenario a
No waning
High protection against infection

Scenario B
Fast waning of immunity
High protection against infection

Scenario C
Slow waning of immunity
Low protection against infection

Scenario D
Fast waning of immunity
Low protection against infection

south Dakota

scenario a
No waning
High protection against infection

Scenario B
Fast waning of immunity
High protection against infection

Scenario C
Slow waning of immunity
Low protection against infection

Scenario D
Fast waning of immunity
Low protection against infection

Tennessee

scenario a
No waning
High protection against infection

Scenario B
Fast waning of immunity
High protection against infection

Scenario C
Slow waning of immunity
Low protection against infection

Scenario D
Fast waning of immunity
Low protection against infection

texas

scenario a
No waning
High protection against infection

Scenario B
Fast waning of immunity
High protection against infection

Scenario C
Slow waning of immunity
Low protection against infection

Scenario D
Fast waning of immunity
Low protection against infection

Utah

scenario a
No waning
High protection against infection

Scenario B
Fast waning of immunity
High protection against infection

Scenario C
Slow waning of immunity
Low protection against infection

Scenario D
Fast waning of immunity
Low protection against infection

Vermont

scenario a
No waning
High protection against infection

Scenario B
Fast waning of immunity
High protection against infection

Scenario C
Slow waning of immunity
Low protection against infection

Scenario D
Fast waning of immunity
Low protection against infection

Virginia

scenario a
No waning
High protection against infection

Scenario B
Fast waning of immunity
High protection against infection

Scenario C
Slow waning of immunity
Low protection against infection

Scenario D
Fast waning of immunity
Low protection against infection

washington

scenario a
No waning
High protection against infection

Scenario B
Fast waning of immunity
High protection against infection

Scenario C
Slow waning of immunity
Low protection against infection

Scenario D
Fast waning of immunity
Low protection against infection

west virginia

scenario a
No waning
High protection against infection

Scenario B
Fast waning of immunity
High protection against infection

Scenario C
Slow waning of immunity
Low protection against infection

Scenario D
Fast waning of immunity
Low protection against infection

ARIZONA

scenario a
No waning
High protection against infection

Scenario B
Fast waning of immunity
High protection against infection

Scenario C
Slow waning of immunity
Low protection against infection

Scenario D
Fast waning of immunity
Low protection against infection

ARKANSAS

scenario a
No waning
High protection against infection

Scenario B
Fast waning of immunity
High protection against infection

Scenario C
Slow waning of immunity
Low protection against infection

Scenario D
Fast waning of immunity
Low protection against infection

Figures show the median, the IQR and the 90%RR

About

To study the spatiotemporal COVID-19 spread, we use the Global Epidemic and Mobility Model (GLEAM), an individual-based, stochastic, and spatial epidemic model [1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6]. GLEAM uses real-world data to perform in-silico simulations of the spatial spread of infectious diseases at the global level.  We use the model to analyze the spatiotemporal spread and magnitude of the COVID-19 epidemic in the USA at the county level. The data are aggregated to provide the estimates at the State level. The model generates an ensemble of possible epidemic projections described by the number of newly generated infections, hospitalizations, and deaths. The model is calibrated on weekly deaths data from the Johns Hopkins Centers for Civic Impact by using an information theoretical approach.

For each state and scenario, we report the weekly median number of projected cases, hospitalizations, and deaths with the interquartile range and 90% CI.

Disclaimer: There are large uncertainties around the transmission of COVID-19, the effectiveness of different policies and the extent to which the population is compliant to social distancing measures. The presented material is based on modeling scenario assumptions informed by current knowledge of the disease and subject to change as more data become available.

Acknowledgements: We acknowledge support from grant HHS/CDC 6U01IP001137 & HHS/CDC 5U01IP0001137. The findings and conclusions in this study are those of the authors and do not necessarily represent the official position of the funding agencies, the National Institutes of Health, or the U.S. Department of Health and Human Services.

Team

Northeastern University/MOBS Lab
• Matteo Chinazzi
• Jessica T. Davis
• Kunpeng Mu
• Ana Pastore y Piontti
• Xinyue Xiong
• Alessandro Vespignani

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